The problem
What needs solving
Measure, in real elections and in time to matter, how much AI-made content and conversations with AI assistants change what people believe and how they vote.
Why it matters
In an online experiment before the 2024 US election, a short chat with an AI moved people’s stated support for a candidate by about 2 to 3 points out of 100 (Nature, December 2025). About a third of the shift lasted a month. The International AI Safety Report found little evidence of such effects outside experiments, and we found no study that measures them in real votes. People are already bringing elections to AI: in one September week, about 1 in 200 US chats with Anthropic’s assistant were about elections or voting.
What counts as progress
(a) Independent teams publish their plans first, then run randomised studies in at least three national elections and two languages, using records from the app or AI company. They report AI’s effect on real turnout or vote choice. (b) Before each national election, an independent body reports how many voters ask AI assistants how to vote and what the assistants answer, with one method, in at least ten countries, for two election cycles. (c) Solved when independent studies in at least two elections agree, within their margins of error, on how much AI changes votes or turnout, and the international scientific assessments quote that figure.
Stater & version history
Stated by UNSOLVED editors
18 Oct 2026 — Stated by the UNSOLVED editors for the founding registry, from the research of October 2026.